Friday, January 04, 2008

The Iowa Caucus

OK, here's my read on the Iowa caucus results: best news - we may not have to settle for Hillary after all; #2 - young voters turned out in strength!!; #3 - Huckabee won in Iowa, but he's unelectable. He's going to polarize Republicans because he's the only one evangelicals can vote for AND he's the one the rest of the party can't vote for; #4 - Romney may not recover, which means McCain is going to be the choice of party die-hards.
So IF (and that's a big IF) the general election comes down to Obama vs. McCain, Obama wins in a landslide. He will also wipe out Huckabee. In other words, I'm beginning to feel something I haven't felt in a long time...HOPE! But I take nothing for granted. If Americans are stupid enough to re-elect Bush, they're dumb enough to put a Republican back in the White House. Young voters, if they get off their butts and vote, will be the best guarantee against that.
What the heck - New Hampshire predictions - I think McCain will win NH, Romney second, and no one else will do much of anything. I think Obama will win for the Dems, with Hillary 2nd and Edwards third.
What to watch for - Hillary has to make some campaign changes. It will be interesting to see what she comes up with. I think she's been using Bill so much that people are getting the feeling she thinks we should vote for her because she's married to him. That won't wash. She's also gotten into the habit of giving politician's answers to every question. She has to start talking to us, even if it means she makes mistakes. That's what Obama, Edwards, and Huckabee do, and it's paying dividends for all of them. Time to get real, Hillary.
I still hope Edwards wins, but I like Obama almost as much. On the Republican side, I hope Huckabee gets the nomination because he's the least electable of all the unelectable Republicans. It's been an interesting political process to watch.

No comments: